Driven by a combination of policy initiatives, California is poised to regain its dominant position in the US solar market in 2013, according to NPD Solarbuzz.

Once the dominant player in the US on-grid solar market, California's share gradually declined as New Jersey, Arizona, and other states on the East Coast launched their own initiatives to deploy solar and to diversify their energy portfolio. In 2011, California's share dropped to 30% while New Jersey's share jumped to 17%.

"NPD Solarbuzz projects that California will regain its market share, after seeing declines in 2010 and 2011, and eventually hold more than half of the US market share in 2013, thanks to a variety of programs, policies, and regulations that cover the whole spectrum of the solar market including residential, non-residential, and utility segments," said Junko Movellan, Senior Analyst for NPD Solarbuzz.

California's baseline market demand has been supported by the California Solar Initiative (CSI), the nation's largest rate-payer-funded program. While CSI has been instrumental in the development of residential and non-residential net-metered systems (used to lower electricity costs on-site), California has instituted several other programs to support larger systems to satisfy the state's Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) requirements.

California has one of the most ambitious RPS goals; it requires both public and investor-owned utilities to procure 33% of all electricity delivered to retail customers from renewable sources by 2020. To meet this requirement, the state's utilities have solicited and contracted not only large-scale centralized projects, but also mid-sized systems, often below 20MW and interconnected to the distribution grid. Several contracted large-scale projects in California that are under development include the 550MW-AC Topaz Solar Farm, the 550MW-AC Desert Sunlight and the 250MW-AC California Valley Solar Ranch.

According to NPD Solarbuzz, the California solar market will experience 60% on-year growth in 2012, continuing to lead the nation with the long-term commitment to solar and other renewable and energy-efficient technologies. The US solar market will grow 51% on-year in 2012, but it is projected to experience slower growth in 2013 at 30% on-year, due to the over-supply of Solar Renewable Energy Certificates (SRECs) on the East Coast and phasing out of the Treasury Cash Grant.